For SMEs importing from China, 2025 was not a “crisis year” but a stress test.

Tariffs didn’t disappear. China didn’t slow down as much as expected. Logistics didn’t break—but they never felt fully stable either. And while many importers survived the year reasonably well, most ended it with the same feeling:

This end-of-year reflection is not about explaining how tariffs work or how China manufactures. You already know that. Instead, this is about where risk actually showed up in 2025, and what SME importers can realistically do in 2026 to protect margins, cash flow, and sanity.

1. The big picture from 2025: uncertainty became permanent

If there is one lesson from 2025, it’s this: Volatility is no longer an exception. It’s the baseline.

Across the U.S., Latin America, and China, importers had to operate in an environment where:

• Tariffs changed—or threatened to change—multiple times.

• Trade policy depended heavily on politics.

• Freight costs were low, but reliability was uneven.

• Currency swings quietly affected profitability.

None of these alone is catastrophic. Together, they force SMEs to move from reactive importing to managed importing.

2. What really mattered in 2025

A. Tariffs stopped being “one-time events.”

For U.S. importers, in particular, tariffs were not just high—they were unstable.

Some duties went up early in the year. Some were partially eased later. Others remained “temporarily” in place with no clear end date. For SMEs, the problem wasn’t only cost—it was planning.

When tariff policy can change faster than inventory cycles, forecasting becomes guesswork.

Key takeaway: Tariffs are now a structural cost, not a temporary disruption. Import strategies must assume they can increase or decrease with little notice.

B. China didn’t retreat—it rerouted

Despite trade tensions, China’s manufacturing engine continued to run. Factories adapted, exports found new markets, and Chinese suppliers remained competitive.

For Latin America in particular, this meant:

• More Chinese goods available.

• Competitive pricing.

• Faster supplier responsiveness.

At the same time, political pressure in some countries created latent risk—even if tariffs weren’t implemented, the discussion alone was a concern.

Key takeaway: China remains essential, but political exposure is now part of supplier risk.

C. Freight got cheaper—but not simpler

By late 2025, ocean freight rates were far lower than pandemic peaks. This helped many SMEs absorb tariff costs.

But cheaper freight didn’t mean friction-free logistics:

• Schedule reliability was inconsistent.

• Peak seasons still caused congestion.

• Global events (conflicts, strikes, weather) kept routes fragile.

Key takeaway: Low freight rates reduce cost pressure—but they don’t eliminate delivery risk.

D. FX quietly decided winners and losers

One of the least discussed—but most impactful—factors in 2025 was currency movement.

Many SMEs realized too late that:

• A weakening local currency erased “good” supplier pricing.

• USD/RMB moves changed supplier behavior.

• FX volatility affected cash flow more than unit costs.

Notably, prices were market-driven. FX exposure was not.

3. Where SME importers are actually exposed

A helpful way to think about 2026 risk is to separate what you cannot control from what you can manage.

The strategic mistake many SMEs make is spending too much energy fighting the left column—and too little optimizing the right one.

4. Practical strategies for 2026 (SME-realistic, not theoretical)

A. Treat FX as a management variable

You can’t control prices. You can manage currency exposure.

This doesn’t require complex derivatives or a treasury team.

Practical steps:

• Review FX exposure frequently, have a process, not just annually or when needed.

• Use forward contracts for predictable payments.

• Hold multi-currency balances when possible (this is simpler than you think).

• Separate pricing discussions from settlement mechanics.

With the right tools, FX becomes manageable risk—not a surprise. That alone often protects margins more reliably than price negotiations.

B. Re-think “China+1” realistically

For most SMEs, “China+1” doesn’t mean leaving China. It means:

• Keeping China as the core supplier.

• Identifying 1–2 backup sources elsewhere.

• Splitting production for tariff or continuity reasons.

This reduces exposure without destroying efficiency.

C. Shift from lean inventory to buffered inventory

2025 reinforced a hard truth: Just-in-time works—until it doesn’t.

In 2026:

• Identify critical SKUs.

• Build modest safety stock.

• Accept slightly higher carrying cost in exchange for continuity.

• Implement tools that improve the accuracy of your inventory forecasting.

Running out of inventory is almost always more expensive than holding a little extra.

D. Design logistics for resilience, not just cost

Importers who performed better in 2025:

• Used multiple ports.

• Worked with more than one forwarder.

• Booked early for peak periods.

• Accepted small cost premiums for reliability.

Think of logistics as insurance, not just an expense.

E. Rethink payment flows, not just suppliers

Many SMEs still rely on direct China-to-home-country payment flows.

In 2025, this proved fragile.

Using hubs (such as Hong Kong) or specialized payment platforms can:

• Improve FX execution.

• Reduce settlement delays.

• Add flexibility without operational complexity.

This is about cash flow control, not tax optimization.

5. A realistic outlook for 2026

No dramatic resolution is coming.

• Tariffs will remain politicized.

• China will stay competitive.

• Logistics will be “mostly fine, occasionally messy.”

• FX volatility will continue.

The difference in 2026 will not be who imports from China. It will be those who deliberately import from China.

SMEs that treat importing as a system—rather than a transaction—will absorb shocks better, price more confidently, and sleep better.

6. Looking ahead to 2026

These are the main risks SME importers should plan for—and the practical ways to mitigate them.

Key Risks for 2026 and Practical Mitigation Strategies for SME Importers

Final thought

2025 didn’t break global trade. It made one thing clear:

SMEs that focus on what they can manage—currency, inventory, logistics, and payment design—will not only survive 2026. They’ll quietly outperform.

Want to go deeper?

A more detailed, tailored analysis—available in Spanish and English—is available upon request at contact@crossbordercompass.com.

References (selected)

• China Briefing

• Freightos

• World Bank

• Council on Foreign Relations

• Gembah

• Reuters

• Trade and logistics industry publications